Shrinking to Greatness
Thu, 03/18/2010 - 7:56pm | by mides
The future of Detroit
Ed Glaeser, the Harvard professor, explains what does it mean for cities to shrink. I find this article interesting since the twin Cities (Minneapolis and St. Paul) have been shrinking for the past 50 years. The current foreclosure crisis and coming commercial collapse will make this a real decision process as our communities and neighborhoods need to decide what needs to stay and what needs to go.
Will right sizing help the Twin Cities as well?
Link to additional information:
Comments
Maybe...
I like the idea of right-sizing.... It does make sense for some cities.
Here's my only concern: In Detroit's case, the neighborhoods most likely to be downsized are located in the center of the metro area, meanwhile the surrounding suburbs probably aren't in quite as much of a hurry to downsize. Will the result be a donut-shaped metro? Downtown --->Dead Zone---->Suburbs????
In best form, downsizing would somehow eliminate the neighborhoods on the edge of the metro, not the neighborhoods in the center. The program should somehow encourage people who live on the edges to move to the center.
Twin Cities shrinking?
Minneapolis' population is about the same as it was when it was first built-out in the 1920s. You can consider it as having shrunk from the 1950 census population - but you have take into account the overcrowding caused by the postwar housing shortage. Taking into account the decrease in average household size (a person and a half less in 2000 than 1930), it seems logical to assume that the number of housing units has increased. Despite the massive dispersal of industry, the incredible concentration of offices downtown makes it likely that economic activity has increased, along with the number of jobs.
St Paul's housing picture is even stronger than Minneapolis', being within 10,000 people of the inflated 1950 count, which again implies that the number of housing units has increased. It is harder to show an increase in economic activity (I confess that I don't have numbers on this, nor time to look for them), although the activity and success of the St Paul Port Authority makes it likely that St Paul has held ground on jobs.
Detroit's history of growth or decline is very different from MSP, having been severely affected by the boom and bust of one industry. I would generalize that more cities have followed Minneapolis and St Paul's pattern, but Ed Glaeser's analysis and Mayor Bing's initiative are useful for those that haven't.
Unfortunately the combination of a systematic concentration of poverty in the inner city and fractured municipal governance has made it appear that American cities declined in the late 20th century, when in fact they mostly held ground or grew. The myth of decline only helps the image of the suburbs and shouldn't be repeated by those who are interested in further inner city growth.
"Urban Renewal" didn't work so well the first time here...
...why do it again? The concept of "shrinking cities" is not very applicable to Minneapolis or St. Paul because there are not a widespread numbers of empty houses around the Twin Cities like Detroit is facing. Aside from the handfuls of poorly managed rental properties that have been allowed to decline, the building stock is generally okay and there is still demand. For the most part, if there's a seller, there is a buyer.
I agree with Alex B in that the number of people per household resulted in significant declines since 1950. Anecdotally, my mom was born around then and most 2-4 bedroom houses in her neighborhood had 2-6 kids.
Additionally, from the 1950s - 1970s, a lot of the building stock in Minneapolis was demolished for freeway construction and downtown renewal. One recent study shows that for every significant freeway that gets built in a major city, population declines by about 18%. [See http://www.planetizen.com/node/43413] Additionally, during "urban renewal" the city razed about two hundred buildings across twenty-five city blocks—roughly 40% of downtown. Given how many fewer apartments and houses were in Minneapolis, the population had to shrink.
Finally, Minneapolis did grow between the 1990 and 2000 Census and seems likely to do so again, given the number of new residences in the North Loop, and in downtown that didn't exist 10 years ago. It seems more important to improve the most challenged neighborhoods by trying to improve the safety and the building stock since the Twin Cities is still economically viable as a region.